Both?
Looks more like a deer impact to me.
Water leak
100% a water leak that weakened the fibrous composite material that makes the baking for that filon panel. It is almost like brown hardboard but a little more flexible like cardboard.
So you need to remove the filon (fiberglass) panel by removing all the trim pieces on the edges, bottom, and roof. Be careful with the filon, it breaks really easy. It is cheap to buy if you need to replace it.
New wood, new insulation, butyl tape, lap sealant, white caulking, and new panel board and you reassemble how you disassembled.
Small asteroid which then caused a leak? Was an airplane flying overhead shortly before?
water leak.
Looks more like impact damage
Source: Is this delamination or damage from being hit by an object?
